Janet CollinsPolls Apart
October 12th 2009 04:26
A pretty standard response from any politician and even more so from any political party leader when asked about unfavourable polling is often “the only poll I am interested in is the one of the people on election day”.
While polling has become something of a staple diet for most political parties, today’s published results of two very separate polls show just how fickle they can be.
The recent polls about the Opposition leadership have been conducted in the midst of reports about a party in crisis, veterans resigning in droves and a party and coalition who cannot agree on how and when to handle the Emissions Trading Scheme legislation.
Despite all that, if Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull’s first newspaper report on his popularity he read this morning was in The Australian, he probably would have breathed a sigh of relief.
The Newspoll survey conducted especially for The Australian had Mr Turnbull favoured as leader by 32 per cent of those polled. The proposed alternative leader, former Howard government minister and current Shadow Treasurer, Joe Hockey, was favoured only by 24 per cent of those polled and a possible third contender, Tony Abbott, came in even lower at 16 per cent.
Mr Turnbull would probably not have felt as comfortable about figures published in The Sydney Morning Herald that tell a very different story. A Herald Nielsen poll, conducted at approximately the same period last week was reported under the heading Hockey firms as voters’ choice.
According to this report, Mr Hockey came in ahead of Mr Turnbull at 33 per cent compared to 31 per cent with the possible third contender, Tony Abbott being favoured by 21 per cent. There were 15 per cent in this poll who didn’t really know who should be leader.
Most of the destablisation of the Opposition leadership recently has been the conflicting views of members of both the Liberal and National Party over the Emissions Trading Scheme legislation. Most want to abandon it altogether but Mr Turnbull is committed to have the present legislation amended before the Copenhagen conference in December and it is generating a lot of conflict within the Party. So it is not surprising that the Party's popularity is in rapid decline.
The Emissions Trading Scheme legislation may be the cause of all the infighting but it also appears that the community cannot make up its mind on the issue either. If polling results for the Scheme in the same poll in The Sydney Morning Herald today are anything to gauge community sentiment by, it is more or less a standoff with 37 per cent of respondents believing that the legislation should be negotiated before the Copenhagen conference.
At 38 per cent, only one per cent more of respondents think that negotiations on the emissions trading scheme should wait until after the Copenhagen conference and 23 per cent of respondents didn’t really know.
It is always hard to believe it when any politician says they are not interested in the leadership. Joe Hockey is really an exception because when he said it, more or less everyone believed it. Not many think he wants it or is ready for the leadership anyway – for now at least. Who would? All the Opposition seem to do is squabble among themselves.
Polling can be right or wrong. It is only a small gauge and is open to a lot of variables but until we have worked out anything that can be any more accurate, polls are the only thing we can go by.
Sourced: www.smh.com.au, www.theaustralian.com.au
Images of Malcolm Turnbull and Joe Hockey from: www.abc.net.au
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